Air Board blows forecast and endangers public health

Kern County-  12.23.11  10:45 am

Since many people plan their outdoor activity, including vigorous exercise, based on the Air Board forecast for the next day, isn’t it better for the forecast to error on the conservative side in order to protect public health?  Examine the chart below and see how the forecast for pollution levels was underestimated by 20% yesterday in Kern County.  People who thought it was fine to work out based on what they heard on the news about the prediction for moderate air pollution were in for a rude and dangerous surprise if they were active at 8 am yesterday morning.

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One thought on “Air Board blows forecast and endangers public health

  1. My own analysis of last winter’s forecasts by the Air District for predicting an exceedance of the 30mcg/m3 threshold for calling a no burn for Fresno County show a distinct bias toward under predicting. There were numerous days on which residential wood burning had been allowed but which proved to exceed 30mcg/m3, many of those exceeding 35mcg.  There were no corresponding numbers of over-predictions, in fact nothing close.  This same bias has been noted in previous years.

    There has been one really egregious gaff this year on December 12, a day burning was allowed in Fresno County which came to average in excess of 63mcg/m3 in the Fresno/Clovis metro area, unhealthful for everyone. Particularly galling was that December 11th averaged 73.4mcg/m3, and from 11pm to midnight on the night of the 11th the Fresno monitor recorded 107mcg/m3 and yet at midnight it became permissible to burn. (Or, more accurately, all those illegal fires suddenly became legal.)

    Gott im Himmel! How long do we go on poisoning ourselves!?

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