SB100 advice

SB 100 goal is 100% renewable electricity in California by 2045. The goal is laid out with intermediate goals giving a straight path to the 100% finish line. The increase in renewable electricity needs to be constant by a little less than 3% per year over 25 years.

Here is a graph showing the SB100 proposed path. The intermediate goals are 33% by 2020, 50% by 2026, 60% by 2030 and 100% by 2045. This path means that approximately one third (34%) of the electricity used in California between 2020 and 2045 will not be renewable and two thirds (66%) will be.

Since getting the final 5-15% renewable electricity will likely be much more difficult than the earlier increases, it may make more sense to speed up the increases in renewable energy over the initial 15 years and glide into the 100% goal over the final ten years.

An alternative path is shown below. Here the earlier goals are increased. They include 60% renewable electricity by 2026 and 85% by 2030. The increases required each year then taper off significantly the last 15 years. In this scenario only one sixth of electricity is not renewable over the 25 years. This scenario cuts CO2 emissions from future electricity use in CA by half when compared to the proposed schedule.

speeded up scenario

The absolutely necessary transfer of transportation and heating energy sources from fossil fuel to electricity will necessitate large increases in electrical use in the final 15-20 years before 2050. This means increasing the intermediate goals in SB100 for the years 2026 and 2030 can both have a significant effect on total GHG emissions in California over the next 25 years and also make it easier to reach the final goal of 100% renewable electricity by 2045 and the 80% reduction in total GHG emissions by 2050.

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